October 18, 2022
32 potential playoff scenarios remain heading into regular season finale
Burlington, Ont. - After eight weeks of play, there is plenty of playoff positioning still to determine in the last five games of regular season competition. And with seven teams making the postseason this year, there is even more to play for in this weekend's final matchups.
With 32 potential playoff scenarios still at play heading into Week 9, here is a closer look at the possible postseason picture, based on the OUA Tiebreaker Procedures (pg. 13).
Top teams make final push for first round bye
The clearest path for the Western Mustangs to secure the coveted first-round bye is to take home a win against Ottawa in Week 9, thereby capping off their undefeated season with the No. 1 seed.
While the Mustangs have made themselves at home atop the OUA standings throughout the 2022 campaign, the Gee-Gees can still jump ahead of the nation's top-ranked team following their head-to-head matchup in Week 9. If Ottawa defeats Western and they are the lone teams with a 7-1 mark on the year, the Gee-Gees will take over top spot and push Western to second.
If Queen's joins their conference counterparts with 7-1 records to end the season, the seeding will come down to point differential in their head-to-head competitions. Therefore, not only is the result in the battle of the horses important, but the margin of victory as well.
Should Ottawa defeat Western by 17 or more points, Ottawa will have the No. 1 seed, followed by Western and Queen's, respectively. If the Gee-Gees win by 16 points or less, however, the standings will finish with the Mustangs at the top, followed by No. 2 Queen's and No. 3 Ottawa, as a result of the former defeating the latter in Week 2.
Six-win scenarios could see Golden Hawks soar
While three teams can finish the campaign with seven wins, the same can be said for potential six-win squads.
In a situation that sees Queen's and Wilfrid Laurier as the lone combatants to finish with a 6-2 record following their matchup in Week 9, the Hawks would soar about the Gaels as a result of that head-to-head victory.
Should Western defeat Ottawa, meanwhile, leaving the Gee-Gees also in a group of six-win finishers, the tiebreaker amongst the three would drill down to point differential in their head-to-head competitions. Therefore, if Laurier beats Queen's by seven or more points, the Hawks would earn the No. 2 seed, followed then by Queen's at No. 3 and Ottawa at No. 4. If the purple and gold come out on top in Week 9 by six points or less, Queen's would stake claim to the No. 2 seed, with Ottawa and Laurier then checking in at No. 3 and No. 4, respectively.
Middle of the pack presents several possible matchups
The middle of the OUA pack is a crowded place, with the potential for numerous teams to finish with records of either 5-3 or 4-4 come season's end.
Should Carleton take home a Week 9 win, coupled with a Wilfrid Laurier loss, both teams would wrap up the campaign at identical 5-3 marks, leaving a tiebreaker scenario that would funnel down to their record in games against common opponents. In this case, Laurier would earn the higher seed.
If Carleton and Windsor finish tied with 4-4 marks, the black birds would come away with the higher seed, having defeated the Lancers in Week 5. If the Ravens end up tied with Toronto, the Blues' Week 2 victory in their head-to-head matchup will put them ahead in the final standings. Finally, if the Lancers and Varsity Blues are knotted at matching 4-4 records, Windsor will earn the higher seed having taken down the Toronto squad in Week 4.
Should all three of the aforementioned teams wrap up their 2022 regular seasons at 4-4, Windsor will earn the higher seed due to the point differential in head-to-head competition, since all teams involved in the tie have played each other at least once. With Toronto and Carleton then restarting the tiebreaker process, Toronto would once again have the higher seed thanks to their win over Carleton.
McMaster victory makes things interesting in push for final spot
If the Marauders march past Toronto in their Week 9 meeting, and Windsor finishes at 4-4, the seventh and final playoff spot goes the way of McMaster, who would earn the tiebreak after both teams finish with matching 3-5 records.
Should the Lancers join the Marauders and Blues with 3-5 marks, Toronto would wind up as the No. 6 seed, after funneling down to the teams' records in games against common opponents. This scenario then leaves Windsor and McMaster competing for the final spot, which would ultimately leave Windsor on the outside looking in as a result of McMaster's win against Waterloo in Week 4 and Windsor's loss to the black and gold in Week 9 (Step 6 in the Tiebreaker Procedures).
With 32 potential playoff scenarios still at play heading into Week 9, here is a closer look at the possible postseason picture, based on the OUA Tiebreaker Procedures (pg. 13).
Top teams make final push for first round bye
The clearest path for the Western Mustangs to secure the coveted first-round bye is to take home a win against Ottawa in Week 9, thereby capping off their undefeated season with the No. 1 seed.
While the Mustangs have made themselves at home atop the OUA standings throughout the 2022 campaign, the Gee-Gees can still jump ahead of the nation's top-ranked team following their head-to-head matchup in Week 9. If Ottawa defeats Western and they are the lone teams with a 7-1 mark on the year, the Gee-Gees will take over top spot and push Western to second.
If Queen's joins their conference counterparts with 7-1 records to end the season, the seeding will come down to point differential in their head-to-head competitions. Therefore, not only is the result in the battle of the horses important, but the margin of victory as well.
Should Ottawa defeat Western by 17 or more points, Ottawa will have the No. 1 seed, followed by Western and Queen's, respectively. If the Gee-Gees win by 16 points or less, however, the standings will finish with the Mustangs at the top, followed by No. 2 Queen's and No. 3 Ottawa, as a result of the former defeating the latter in Week 2.
Six-win scenarios could see Golden Hawks soar
While three teams can finish the campaign with seven wins, the same can be said for potential six-win squads.
In a situation that sees Queen's and Wilfrid Laurier as the lone combatants to finish with a 6-2 record following their matchup in Week 9, the Hawks would soar about the Gaels as a result of that head-to-head victory.
Should Western defeat Ottawa, meanwhile, leaving the Gee-Gees also in a group of six-win finishers, the tiebreaker amongst the three would drill down to point differential in their head-to-head competitions. Therefore, if Laurier beats Queen's by seven or more points, the Hawks would earn the No. 2 seed, followed then by Queen's at No. 3 and Ottawa at No. 4. If the purple and gold come out on top in Week 9 by six points or less, Queen's would stake claim to the No. 2 seed, with Ottawa and Laurier then checking in at No. 3 and No. 4, respectively.
Middle of the pack presents several possible matchups
The middle of the OUA pack is a crowded place, with the potential for numerous teams to finish with records of either 5-3 or 4-4 come season's end.
Should Carleton take home a Week 9 win, coupled with a Wilfrid Laurier loss, both teams would wrap up the campaign at identical 5-3 marks, leaving a tiebreaker scenario that would funnel down to their record in games against common opponents. In this case, Laurier would earn the higher seed.
If Carleton and Windsor finish tied with 4-4 marks, the black birds would come away with the higher seed, having defeated the Lancers in Week 5. If the Ravens end up tied with Toronto, the Blues' Week 2 victory in their head-to-head matchup will put them ahead in the final standings. Finally, if the Lancers and Varsity Blues are knotted at matching 4-4 records, Windsor will earn the higher seed having taken down the Toronto squad in Week 4.
Should all three of the aforementioned teams wrap up their 2022 regular seasons at 4-4, Windsor will earn the higher seed due to the point differential in head-to-head competition, since all teams involved in the tie have played each other at least once. With Toronto and Carleton then restarting the tiebreaker process, Toronto would once again have the higher seed thanks to their win over Carleton.
McMaster victory makes things interesting in push for final spot
If the Marauders march past Toronto in their Week 9 meeting, and Windsor finishes at 4-4, the seventh and final playoff spot goes the way of McMaster, who would earn the tiebreak after both teams finish with matching 3-5 records.
Should the Lancers join the Marauders and Blues with 3-5 marks, Toronto would wind up as the No. 6 seed, after funneling down to the teams' records in games against common opponents. This scenario then leaves Windsor and McMaster competing for the final spot, which would ultimately leave Windsor on the outside looking in as a result of McMaster's win against Waterloo in Week 4 and Windsor's loss to the black and gold in Week 9 (Step 6 in the Tiebreaker Procedures).
