Piecing together the postseason puzzle with the Week 9 slate ahead

Burlington, Ont. – It all comes down to Week 9 of the Ontario University Athletics (OUA) football regular season to determine the final pieces of the postseason puzzle.

This season, there are 12 potential playoff scenarios based on the OUA’s tiebreaking procedures (OUA Procedures, pg. 13), with five teams already qualifying for the upcoming quest for the Yates Cup and two – Toronto Varsity Blues and Waterloo Warriors – having been eliminated from contention.

Unlike a season ago, when the battle for top spot came down to the season’s final game, the Wilfrid Laurier Golden Hawks have already staked their claim to the No. 1 seed – and the corresponding first round bye in the playoffs.

The defending champion Western Mustangs have also secured a postseason berth and, should they defeat the Lancers in Week 9, will enter the playoffs as the No. 2 seed.

If Windsor comes away with the win, however, they will wrap up the campaign with six wins, matching both the Mustangs and Guelph Gryphons in that regard. This tie would be decided based on the three teams’ records against common opponents (Tiebreaker Step #5), placing the Gryphons at the disadvantage. The Lancers head-to-head triumph over Western in this scenario, then, would give them the No. 2 seed, followed by the Mustangs at No. 3 and Guelph at No. 4.

Regardless of Saturday’s results, all three of the aforementioned teams are guaranteed to host a quarterfinal game, as none of them can finish lower than fourth in the standings.

The only other team that is currently confirmed to be postseason bound is the Queen’s Gaels, who will finish no higher than fifth place. While this is their most likely final ranking heading into the postseason, a scenario that sees Queen’s drop their Week 9 tilt and finish tied with Ottawa and McMaster with matching 4-4 records would have the Gaels fall below them given their record in games against common opponents.

Should the Gee-Gees and Marauders finish tied with 4-4 records, both will clinch their postseason spots. So for those two, as the saying goes, it’s a win-and-they’re-in situation in Week 9. The seeding, meanwhile, will be determined by point differential following that final week’s results, as the preceding six steps in the tiebreaking process do not separate the squads.

If one or both of those teams were to drop their regular season finales, meanwhile, opportunity knocks for the Carleton Ravens and York Lions to potentially punch their postseason tickets.

Should it just be cross-town rivals Ottawa and Carleton finishing at 3-5 – with the Ravens winning in Week 9 and the Gee-Gees dropping their finale – the Garnet and Grey’s Panda Game victory will earn them the higher seed. If McMaster were to beat York in this situation, the Ravens’ season would then be over.

If it is York and McMaster winding down the year with identical three-win campaigns – which would mean a Week 9 win for the former over the latter – it will be the Lions earning the higher seed as a result of that head-to-head victory. That result, coupled with a Carleton loss, would see the Lions roar into the postseason as the No. 7 seed.

If Carleton were to match McMaster and York with 3-5 records, however, the Ravens would be ranked highest due to point differential in head-to-head competition (Tiebreaker Step #3).

Adding further intrigue to the above scenario would be if the Gee-Gees were to lose to Toronto in Week 9 and create a four-way tie in the standings at 3-5. In this scenario, Ottawa’s record in games against common opponents (Toronto) would leave them as the lowest seed (No. 9) among the four, leaving then the remaining squads to revert back to the previous scenario (No. 6 Carleton, No. 7 York, No. 8 McMaster).

Finally, if Carleton were to lose to Laurier, while Ottawa, McMaster, and York finish tied at 3-5, the Marauders would claim the highest seed based on their 3-1 record against common opponents. With Ottawa’s win over York in Week 2, the Gee-Gees would then be ranked next above the Lions.

Needless to say, there is plenty to play for when the Week 9 OUA slate kicks off on Saturday and the quest for the 116th Yates Cup draws closer.